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Nov 06, 2012
Who will Win the Popular Vote for President? We’re Not Sure – Final Toluna Pre-Election Poll a Dead Heat

Who will Win the Popular Vote for President?  We’re Not Sure

Final Toluna Pre-Election Poll a Dead Heat

 WILTON, CT. – November 6, 2012 – Who will win the popular vote for president?  It is too close to call, with Barack Obama and Mitt Romney each expected to receive 48 percent of the vote based on a Toluna survey of 1,505 early or likely voters, all online users.  Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party and Jill Stein of the Green Party are expected to receive two and one percent of the vote, respectively, as well.  Finally, “other” candidates are expected to receive two percent of the vote.

 

TABLE 1

VOTING IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(Early Voters): “You indicated that you already voted.  For whom did you vote?”

(Likely Voters): “Now, we’d like to get your opinion about how you might vote in the election for president. If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you most likely vote?”

(Likely Voters, follow-up): If “Not Sure”: “If you had to say, for which candidate would you most likely vote?”

Base: Early and Likely voters with “not sure” responses of likely voters apportioned.

Candidate & Party

%

Barack Obama, Democratic Party

48

Mitt Romney, Republican Party

48

Gary Johnson, Libertarian Party

2

Jill Stein, Green Party

1

Other

2

%’s sum to 101 due to rounding

 

Methodology

This Toluna survey was conducted online within the United States between November 1 and November 5, 2012 among 2,095 adults (aged 18 and over), of whom 1,505 were early or likely voters.  Respondents were selected for this survey through Toluna’s SmartSelectSM methodology from among those who have agreed to participate in Toluna surveys.  Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region, household income and a measure reflecting respondent’s likelihood of being online were weighted, where necessary, to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

Please note that all sample surveys and polls are subject to multiple sources of error that are difficult to quantify or estimate.  They include sampling error, coverage error, error associated with non-response, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting adjustments.  For these reasons, Toluna avoids using the words margin of error.

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